Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, often known as MBS, has become one of the most talked-about figures on the world stage. His rise to power in Saudi Arabia has been marked by ambitious reforms, bold initiatives, and significant controversies. Understanding the multifaceted reactions to his actions is crucial to grasping the complexities of modern Saudi Arabia and its role in global affairs. Let's dive into the various perspectives and sentiments surrounding MBS.

Initial Enthusiasm and Hope

When MBS first emerged as a prominent figure, there was considerable optimism, especially among younger Saudis and international observers eager to see change. His promises of economic diversification through Vision 2030, which aims to reduce Saudi Arabia’s dependence on oil, resonated with many who saw the need for modernization. The idea of opening up the country to tourism and foreign investment was particularly appealing.

Many young Saudis were excited about the prospect of social reforms. For decades, the Kingdom had been known for its conservative social norms. MBS began to ease some of these restrictions, allowing cinemas to reopen, permitting women to drive, and relaxing certain dress codes. These changes were widely celebrated by a generation that had grown up yearning for more freedom and opportunities. The energy and drive he projected seemed to signal a new era for the country, one where progress and innovation would take center stage.

Internationally, MBS was initially seen as a reformer who could potentially modernize Saudi Arabia and make it a more reliable partner in global affairs. His meetings with world leaders were often characterized by discussions of trade, investment, and security cooperation. Many Western governments were keen to foster closer ties with the Kingdom, viewing MBS as someone they could work with to address regional challenges such as terrorism and instability. The narrative was largely positive, with MBS being portrayed as a dynamic leader with a clear vision for the future. Economically, investors saw vast opportunities in Saudi Arabia's diversification efforts and modernization projects. The Kingdom's strategic location, vast oil reserves, and ambitious plans made it an attractive destination for foreign capital. Many companies and investors were eager to get involved in projects like NEOM, a futuristic city planned in the northwest of the country, and other infrastructure developments. These projects promised not only financial returns but also a chance to be part of Saudi Arabia's transformation.

Rising Concerns and Criticisms

However, this initial enthusiasm gradually gave way to concerns and criticisms. The crackdown on dissent, particularly the arrest and alleged torture of activists, journalists, and even members of the royal family, raised serious questions about MBS’s commitment to genuine reform. The Ritz-Carlton affair in 2017, where hundreds of prominent businessmen and royals were detained on corruption charges, sent shockwaves through the business community and fueled concerns about the rule of law.

The Yemen war has been a major source of international criticism. The Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, aimed at restoring the government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, has resulted in a devastating humanitarian crisis. Reports of civilian casualties, airstrikes on hospitals and schools, and the imposition of a blockade that has exacerbated food shortages have drawn condemnation from human rights organizations and international bodies. The conflict has not only destabilized Yemen but also tarnished Saudi Arabia's reputation on the global stage. The handling of dissent within Saudi Arabia has also come under intense scrutiny. The arrests and trials of activists, intellectuals, and journalists have raised serious concerns about freedom of expression and the rule of law. The case of Loujain al-Hathloul, a prominent women's rights activist who was arrested and allegedly tortured for her advocacy, has become a symbol of the Kingdom's crackdown on dissent. These actions have led to calls for greater transparency and accountability in Saudi Arabia's human rights record.

Perhaps the most significant turning point in the perception of MBS was the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018. Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist and critic, was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The gruesome details of the murder, along with evidence suggesting the involvement of high-ranking Saudi officials, sparked international outrage. The CIA concluded that MBS likely ordered the assassination, a charge that Saudi Arabia has denied. The Khashoggi affair severely damaged MBS’s reputation and led to calls for accountability and sanctions.

Shifting Alliances and Geopolitical Maneuvering

In response to these challenges, MBS has sought to reposition Saudi Arabia on the global stage. He has strengthened ties with countries like Russia and China, diversifying the Kingdom's partnerships beyond its traditional allies in the West. This shift reflects a broader trend of geopolitical realignment, as countries seek to navigate an increasingly multipolar world.

The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States, which has been a cornerstone of the Middle East for decades, has also undergone significant changes. While the two countries remain strategic partners, there have been tensions over issues such as the Yemen war, human rights, and oil production. MBS has sought to assert Saudi Arabia's independence and pursue its own interests, even when they diverge from those of the United States. This has led to a more complex and at times strained relationship between the two countries.

Economically, MBS has continued to push forward with Vision 2030, despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and global economic uncertainties. The Kingdom has invested heavily in infrastructure projects, tourism development, and renewable energy, seeking to diversify its economy and create new opportunities for its citizens. The success of these efforts will be crucial in determining the long-term trajectory of Saudi Arabia and its role in the global economy. In terms of regional politics, MBS has pursued a more assertive foreign policy, seeking to counter the influence of Iran and its allies. This has led to increased tensions in the Middle East, with proxy conflicts playing out in countries like Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has become a major source of instability in the region, and efforts to de-escalate tensions have so far been unsuccessful.

Domestic Support and Challenges

Despite the international criticism, MBS maintains significant support within Saudi Arabia. Many Saudis appreciate his efforts to modernize the country, create economic opportunities, and assert Saudi Arabia's role on the world stage. The social reforms, in particular, have been popular among younger Saudis who have long desired greater freedoms and a more open society.

However, there are also challenges to MBS’s authority. The crackdown on dissent has created a climate of fear, and many Saudis are hesitant to express their opinions openly. The economic reforms have not yet delivered the promised benefits for all segments of society, and there are concerns about rising inequality and unemployment. The Yemen war has also taken a toll on the Saudi economy and morale. The key to maintaining domestic support will be delivering on the promises of Vision 2030, ensuring that the benefits of economic diversification are shared widely, and addressing the concerns of those who feel marginalized or disenfranchised. MBS must also find a way to balance the need for security and stability with the desire for greater freedom and openness, creating a society where dissent is tolerated and human rights are respected.

The Future of MBS and Saudi Arabia

The future of MBS and Saudi Arabia is uncertain. He faces significant challenges, both domestically and internationally. However, he also has the opportunity to shape the Kingdom's destiny and leave a lasting legacy. Whether he will be remembered as a reformer who modernized Saudi Arabia or as an autocrat who suppressed dissent remains to be seen.

The choices that MBS makes in the coming years will have far-reaching implications for Saudi Arabia, the Middle East, and the world. If he can successfully navigate the complex challenges he faces, he has the potential to transform Saudi Arabia into a more prosperous, stable, and influential nation. However, if he fails to address the concerns about human rights, economic inequality, and regional stability, he risks undermining his own authority and jeopardizing the future of the Kingdom. Ultimately, the success of MBS will depend on his ability to balance the competing demands of modernization, security, and stability, and to create a society where all Saudis can thrive.